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Global hydroclimate significantly differed from modern climate during the mid-Holocene (6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka). Consequently, both periods have been described as either a partial or reverse analogue for current climate change. To reconstruct past hydroclimate, an offline paleoclimate data assimilation methodology is applied to a dataset of 216 lake status records which provide relative estimates of water level change. The proxy observations are integrated with the climate dynamics of two transient simulations (TraCE-21ka and HadCM3) using a multivariate proxy system model (PSM) which estimates relative lake status from available climate simulation variables. The resulting DAMP-21ka (Data Assimilation of Moisture Patterns 21 000–0 BP) reanalysis reconstructs annual lake status and precipitation values at 500-year resolution and represents the first application of the methodology to global hydroclimate on timescales spanning the Holocene and longer. Validation using Pearson's correlation coefficients indicates that the reconstruction (0.24) is more skillful, on average, than model simulations (0.09), particularly in portions of North America and east Africa, where data density is high and proxy–model disagreement is prominent during the Holocene. Results of the PSM and assimilation are used to evaluate climatic controls on lake status, spatiotemporal patterns of moisture variability, and proxy–model disagreement. During the mid-Holocene, wetter conditions are reconstructed for northern and eastern Africa, Asia, and southern Australia, but in contrast to the model prior, negative anomalies are observed in North America, resulting in drier-than-modern conditions throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Proxy–model disagreement in western North America may reflect a bias in model simulations to stronger sea level pressure gradients in the North Pacific during the mid-Holocene. The data assimilation framework is able to reconcile these differences by integrating the constraints of proxy observations with the dynamics of the model prior to produce a more robust estimation of hydroclimate variability during the past 21 000 years. 

Abstract Substantial changes in terrestrial hydroclimate during the Holocene are recorded in geological archives and simulated by computer models. To identify spatial and temporal patterns during the past 12 ka, proxy records sensitive to changing precipitation and effective moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) were compiled from across the globe (n = 813). Proxy composite timeseries were computed for 30 of the IPCC AR6 regions and compared to two full‐Holocene transient model simulations (TraCE‐21ka and HadCM3) and twelve mid‐Holocene CMIP6 simulations. We find that throughout Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions, proxy and model simulations indicate wetter‐than‐modern conditions during the early and mid‐Holocene while Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions were drier. This insolation driven trend toward modern values began approximately 6,000 years ago, and the clear agreement among proxy records and models may reflect the large magnitude of precipitation change and consistent atmospheric circulation forcing mechanism for these regions. In the midlatitudes, the pattern of change is less certain. Generally, proxy composites show a wetting trend throughout the Holocene for the northern midlatitudes, possibly due to strengthening westerlies from an increasing latitudinal temperature gradient. However, simulations indicate that the magnitude of change was relatively low, and for portions of North America, there is a proxy‐model disagreement. At high latitudes, hydroclimate is positively correlated with temperature in both proxies and models, consistent with projected wetting as temperatures rise. Overall, this large proxy database reveals a coherent pattern of hydroclimate variability despite the challenges associated with reconstructing hydroclimate fields.